What Percentage Of The Us Population Is Registered Republican

Story Highlights

Preferences shifted from nine-point Autonomous advantage to 5-point GOP border
Average party preferences for all of 2021 like to past years
Largest percentage of U.S. adults identify as political independents

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- On average, Americans' political party preferences in 2021 looked similar to prior years, with slightly more U.S. adults identifying as Democrats or leaning Democratic (46%) than identified equally Republicans or leaned Republican (43%).

However, the full general stability for the total-yr boilerplate obscures a dramatic shift over the course of 2021, from a nine-pct-point Democratic advantage in the first quarter to a rare five-point Republican edge in the 4th quarter.

These results are based on aggregated data from all U.S. Gallup telephone surveys in 2021, which included interviews with more than 12,000 randomly sampled U.S. adults.

Gallup asks all Americans it interviews whether they identify politically every bit a Republican, a Democrat or an independent. Independents are then asked whether they lean more toward the Republican or Democratic Party. The combined pct of party identifiers and leaners gives a mensurate of the relative strength of the ii parties politically.

Both the 9-betoken Democratic advantage in the kickoff quarter and the v-indicate Republican edge in the 4th quarter are among the largest Gallup has measured for each party in whatsoever quarter since it began regularly measuring party identification and leaning in 1991.

The Democratic lead in the first quarter was the largest for the party since the 4th quarter of 2012, when Democrats also had a nine-indicate advantage. Democrats held larger, double-digit advantages in isolated quarters between 1992 and 1999 and most continuously between mid-2006 and early on 2009.
The GOP has held as much as a five-bespeak reward in a full of simply four quarters since 1991. The Republicans last held a 5-point advantage in party identification and leaning in early 1995, after winning command of the House of Representatives for the first fourth dimension since the 1950s. Republicans had a larger advantage just in the first quarter of 1991, after the U.S. victory in the Western farsi Gulf War led by then-President George H.W. Bush.

Party Preference Shifts Follow Changes in Presidential Approval

Shifting party preferences in 2021 are likely tied to changes in popularity of the two men who served as president during the twelvemonth. Republican Donald Trump finished out his single term in January, after being defeated in the 2020 election, with a 34% chore approval rating, the lowest of his term. His popularity fell more ten points from Election Day 2020 every bit the land's COVID-19 infections and deaths reached then-record highs, he refused to acknowledge the result of the election, and his supporters rioted at the U.S. Capitol on January. 6, 2021, in an endeavour to prevent Congress from counting the 2020 Balloter College votes.

Democrat Joe Biden enjoyed relatively high ratings afterward taking office on Jan. xx, and his approval stayed high through the early summer every bit COVID-nineteen infections dramatically decreased afterwards millions of Americans got vaccinated against the disease. A summer surge of infections tied to the delta variant of the coronavirus made it articulate the pandemic was not over in the U.South., and Biden'due south approving ratings began to sag. Afterward, the chaotic U.Southward. withdrawal from Afghanistan caused Biden's ratings to fall further, into the low 40s. His ratings remain low equally the U.S. battles rising inflation and yet some other surge of COVID-nineteen infections, tied to the omicron variant of the virus.

With Trump'due south approval rating at a depression signal and Biden relatively popular in the first quarter, 49% of Americans identified equally Democrats or leaned Democratic, compared with twoscore% who were Republicans or Republican leaners.

In the second quarter, Autonomous affiliation stayed high, while Republican affiliation began to recover, increasing to 43%.

The third quarter saw a pass up in Autonomous identification and leaning, from 49% to 45%, every bit Biden's ratings began to stammer, while there was no meaningful change in Republican amalgamation.

In the fourth quarter, party support flipped as Republicans made gains, from 44% to 47%, and Democratic affiliation fell from 45% to 42%. These quaternary-quarter shifts coincided with potent GOP performances in 2021 elections, including a Republican victory in the Virginia gubernatorial ballot and a nigh-upset of the Autonomous incumbent governor in New Bailiwick of jersey. Biden won both states by double digits in the 2020 election.

The GOP advantage may be starting to ease, however, equally Gallup's latest monthly gauge, from December, showed the ii parties nigh even -- 46% Republican/Republican leaning and 44% Democratic/Autonomous leaning.

2021 Shifts Occurred Amongst Both Core Party Identifiers and Less Attached Leaners

The shifts in political party affiliation in each quarter of 2021 were apparent in both the percentage identifying with each party and the percent of independents leaning to each party, just with more changes among leaners than identifiers.

Between the first and fourth quarters, the percent of Democratic identifiers decreased by ii points, while the percentage of Democratic-leaning independents dropped five points. Republican identification increased by three points from the beginning to the end of 2021, while Republican leaners increased by 4 points.

Changes in Political party Identification and Leaning, past Quarter, 2021

In politics, as of today, do you lot consider yourself -- [a Republican, a Democrat] -- or an independent? // As of today, do you lean more than to the -- [Democratic Party or the Republican Party]?

	2021-I	2021-II	2021-III	2021-Four
	%	%	%	%
Democrat	30	31	28	28
Democratic-leaning contained	19	18	17	14
Non-leaning independent	x	v	8	9
Republican-leaning independent	fifteen	17	sixteen	19
Republican	25	26	28	28
Percentage with no opinion not shown
Gallup

Democrats Usually Concord an Advantage, and Did And then in 2021

When all the 2021 shifts are netted out, the Democrats' average three-signal reward for the entirety of the yr is only slightly smaller than they had in recent years. Democrats held v- or six-point advantages in party affiliation each yr between 2016 and 2020, and three-indicate edges in 2014 and 2015.

Gallup began regularly measuring political party leaning in 1991, and in well-nigh years, significantly more Americans have identified as Democrats or as independents who lean Democratic than every bit Republicans or Republican leaners. The major exception was 1991, when Republicans held a 48% to 44% advantage in party identification and leaning. From 2001 through 2003 and in 2010 and 2011, the parties had roughly equal levels of support.

Independents Are Still the Largest Political Group in the U.S.

Regardless of which party has an advantage in party amalgamation, over the past three decades, presidential elections have mostly been competitive, and party command of the U.South. House of Representatives and Senate has inverse hands numerous times. This is partly considering neither party tin can claim a very loftier share of core supporters -- those who identify with the political party -- as the largest proportion of Americans identify initially every bit political independents.

Overall in 2021, an average of 29% of Americans identified equally Democrats, 27% as Republicans and 42% as independents. Roughly equal proportions of independents leaned to the Democratic Party (17%) and to the Republican Party (16%).

The pct of independent identifiers is up from 39% in 2020, simply similar to the 41% measured in 2019. Gallup has often seen a decrease in independents in a presidential election yr and an increase in the year after.

The broader trend toward an increasing share of political independents has been clear over the by decade, with more than Americans viewing themselves as independents than did and so in the late 1980s through 2000s. At to the lowest degree iv in 10 Americans have considered themselves independents in all years since 2011, except for the 2016 and 2020 presidential election years. Earlier 2011, independent identification had never reached twoscore%.

Bottom Line

The year 2021 was an eventful ane in politics, after a similarly eventful 2020 that also saw major shifts in political party preferences. In early on 2021, Democratic strength reached levels not seen in nearly a decade. By the 3rd quarter, those Democratic gains evaporated as Biden's job approving declined. The political winds continued to become more than favorable to Republicans in the fourth quarter, giving the GOP an advantage over Democrats larger than any they had achieved in more than 25 years.

The final monthly survey of 2021 showed the parties at roughly even force, although that still represents a difference from the historical norm of the Democratic Party's having at least a slight advantage in party affiliation.

With command of the House of Representatives and Senate at stake in this yr'southward midterm elections, party preferences will exist a key indicator of which party will exist amend positioned to gain majorities in the adjacent session of Congress.

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